Trump won 18 of the 19. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. The divisions were everywhere. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. 2016 Election (1135) "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). What are your thoughts on this article? Watch Hampton City. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). 12. There are 391 such counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Enter Donald Trump. Election night is going to be information overload. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. It gets a lot more interesting. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections Their emotions and decision making process are real. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Contributors wanted A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? It also backed Gov. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. University of New Hampshire . Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). The highest percentage being 66.1%. This county voted with the popular vote each time. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. 8. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. So, where are the bellwether counties? In communities . More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Want to dive deeper? Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. It is easy to gloss over this. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight i.e. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties.